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Bet on the economy worsening, especially with Obama nearly assured election, and Nancy Pelosi and others already talking about further massive government intervention. They just can’t resist revisiting the misery of the 1930s, and you can be assured that with people in Washington DC such as Paulson, Bernanke, Pelosi and Reid you’re going to get it – in spades.

As for the stock market, my target within the next 12-24 months is now S&P 500 – yes, trading at 500. This target may not be achieved in full, but I am rapidly losing confidence that the 2003 Bear Market lows will hold, and if they do not, that is the next area of chart support, a full loss of the entire original bull market level going back to the early 1990s.

When adjusted for inflation the damage will, of course, be far worse than the nominal numbers indicate. In fact, for many investors, especially those who try to “buy the dips” here, they will be catastrophic.

Beware.

via The Folly Of A Depression Thesis – The Market Ticker

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Sinfest

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Home Page | FED Up USA

Watch the video, you’ll understand.

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This is really more depressing than I’m playing it.  I’m ticked off about this.  Really.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

The Congress is about to approve a bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  This is bad.  Really, really bad.  Here’s the lowdown:

a)  Bail out FNM and FRE.  Protect the assets of a large pool of billionaires who invested in FNM and FRE.  Interest rates go to 10% on mortgages.  Home values plummet.  Average Americans take it in the short two ways:  first, declining home values; and second, we foot the bill for somewhere north of ONE TRILLION DOLLARS in bailout money.  That’s an increase in our national debt of around 10%.  Great Depression II follows.

b)  Let Freddie and Fannie fail.  Lots of billionaires lose lots and lots of money.  Nobody gets a mortgage for many, many months.  Lots of banks go under.  Banks that behaved responsibility totally mop up on the market and make tons of money.  Average taxpayer loses nothing.  Home values stop declining.  No Great Depression II.

Can you guess which way I’m leaning?

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Mish has this one pegged – right on:
I do not believe the current system can remain if the bankers make the profits and the taxpayers share the losses.

It’s okay to be outraged.  What Wall Street and the Bankers have done is outrageous.  But the solution is NOT to socialize our financial sector.

The solution is to let the Bankers lose all the money they’ve taken out of our pockets over the last five years.

Want to profit on the Bankers’ losses?  Invest against them.  Short JPM and LEH.  If you can’t short ’em, buy an ETF that shorts them.  My current favority is SKF – buy it today at 117, sell it in a couple of months for 150.

Take back what they stole.  It’s your duty.

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Wild Pigs

Unusual to get timely economic lessons from your mother, but it happens.  This came from Mom this morning:

There was a professor in a large college that had some exchange students in the class. One day while the class was in the lab the Prof noticed one young man (exchange student) who kept rubbing his back and stretching as if his back hurt.

The professor asked the young man what was the matter. The student told him he had a bullet lodged in his back. He had been shot while fighting communists in his native country who were trying to overthrow his country’s government and install a new communist government.

In the midst of his story he looked at the professor and asked a strange question. He asked, ‘ Do you know how to catch wild pigs?’

The professor thought it was a joke and asked for the punch line.

The young man said this was no joke’ You catch wild pigs by finding a suitable place in the woods and putting corn on the ground. The pigs find it and begin to come everyday to eat the free corn. When they are used to coming every day, you put a fence down one side of the place where they are used to coming. When they get used to the fence, they begin to eat the corn again and you put up another side of the fence. They get used to that and start to eat again. You continue until you have all four sides of the fence up with a gate in the last side. The pigs, who are used to the free corn, start to come through the gate to eat, you slam the gate on them and catch the whole herd.

Suddenly the wild pigs have lost their freedom. They run around and around inside the fence, but they are caught. Soon they go back to eating the free corn. They are so used to it that they have forgotten how to forage in th e woods for themselves, so they accept their captivity.

The young man then told the professor that is exactly what he sees happening to America. The government keeps pushing us toward Communism/Socialism and keeps spreading the free corn out in the form of programs such as supplemental income, tax credit for unearned income, tobacco subsidies, dairy subsidies, payments not to plant crops (CRP), welfare,  medicine, drugs, free medical, etc. while we continually lose our freedoms – just a little at a time.

One should always remember ‘There is no such thing as a free Lunch! Also, a politician will never provide a service for you cheaper than you can do it yourself.

‘A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have.’ ……. Thomas Jefferson

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You may think that the Fed and JP Morgan just bailed out Bear Stearns, saving it from bankruptcy.

Not so.

YOU just bailed out Bear Stearns.

Working together, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, backed by George Bush, and via The Fed’s Ben Bernanke, a “bribe” was given to JP Morgan to buy out the troubled Bear Stearns. A $30 Billion bribe. All three know that this bribe (actually, a loan which need never be repaid — where can I get one of those?) will result in a bill flowing back to the taxpayers, you and I, to the tune of $300 for every taxpayer in America.

I’m pissed off about that.

This is a clear violation of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The Fed simply *CAN’T* do this.

It’s also, not incidentally, clearly in violation of the Constitution of the United States of America. I have been taxed, at the Federal level, and Congress was nowhere to be found.

Congress isn’t moving on this. The President is (as always) completely oblivious. Time to send a well-deserved wake-up. If you’re as pissed off as I am, please consider reading (and signing) this petition .

Thank you.

And, God Bless the United States of America

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